Biden’s diplomatic task has become difficult
President Biden arrived on Wednesday for a high-wire diplomatic mission to Israel, which is facing new challenges by the minute. A deadly explosion at a Gaza hospital on Tuesday prompted Israelis and Palestinians to blame each other, and Jordan to cancel a meeting with Biden and Arab leaders aimed at reducing tensions in the region. Had to help.
All of this risks turning into exactly what investors feared: a sharp increase in violence that could shake markets, disrupting a fragile global economy. increasing tension: Iran on Wednesday called on members of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation to impose an oil embargo on Israel.
latest developments: Biden meets Benjamin Netanyahu in support of efforts to eliminate Hamas; Aides have said Biden will ask “tough questions” of the Israeli prime minister about the country’s air strikes over a possible ground attack on Gaza. Before departing for Israel, Biden said he was “outraged and deeply saddened” by the explosion at Ahli Arab hospital. Palestinians blamed Israeli airstrikes, and Israelis cited rockets fired by mistake by an armed Palestinian group. Accounts from either side could not be independently verified, and the cause of the explosion and the death toll remained unclear.
The chances of fighting breaking out in more parts of the Middle East are increasing. Israeli forces are clashing with Iran-backed Hezbollah forces based in southern Lebanon.
Investors’ concern seems to be increasing. Crude’s top benchmarks, Brent and West Texas Intermediate, rose about 3 percent on Wednesday as markets worried about rapidly expanding oil supplies.
Defense stockpiles are even higher, already rising as the war in Ukraine dragged on – and rising even further as Washington began sending weapons to Israel following the October 7 Hamas attacks on Israel. an important part of $100 billion aid According to Bloomberg, Biden may seek funding from Congress for additional defensive measures for Israel and Ukraine.
The markets have reached low levels. S&P 500 futures were down more than 0.4 percent, and gold, considered a safe-haven asset, was rising Wednesday morning. “The risk of escalation has increased,” jane foleyBut he added, “There is very little sign of panic in the market,” the head of foreign exchange strategy at Rabobank told Bloomberg.
In related news: Elite law firm Davis Polk rescinded job offers to students it believed had led organizations that blamed Israel for Hamas attacks had signed the statements of stay – but said he was reconsidering some of those decisions. billionaire Ron Lauder threatened to stop donating at the University of Pennsylvania over concerns about the school’s stance on anti-Semitism. And Republican Representative Mike Waltz of Florida called on Bill Gates to sanction members of Hamas Using Four Seasons HotelsWhich the co-founders of Microsoft control through their investment firm.
Save the date: The DealBook Summit will take place on November 29th. Interviewees include Vice President Kamala Harris, former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and CTO of X. you can Apply to attend here,
What’s going on over here
U.S. consumers are continuing their shopping spree, raising new inflation concerns. Data published on Tuesday showed that retail spending in September increased by 0.7 percent More than expected, from a month ago. This may cause Fed policymakers to consider whether to raise interest rates again. Across the Atlantic, inflation in Britain remained steady last month, as rising fuel prices offset a fall in food costs.
X Testing is charging some new users $1 per year. The company said this charge, which will roll out in the Philippines and New Zealand and require new users to post on the platform, was another effort to combat bot activity. The company is looking for new sources of revenue amid the decline in advertising.
Lloyd’s of London has warned of catastrophic damage from a payments system hack. The insurer estimated the damage a “hypothetical but plausible” attack could do to the global economy. approximately 3.5 trillion dollarsAmerica alone has suffered a loss of 1.1 trillion dollars. It’s the latest warning from the insurance industry about the damage caused by hacks.
Tucker Carlson raises $15 million for his new media venture. former fox news host Received support from Omed Malik, a former Bank of America executive turned financier for right-wing businesses. Carlson’s company will focus on online video subscriptions, and is expected to seek hundreds of crores of rupees in additional investment.
House uproar reignites shutdown concerns
As the chaos of the leaderless House drags on for another week, Wall Street is bracing for a worst-case scenario: a government shutdown next month that could hammer the economy and markets and blow allies in Israel and Ukraine. .
Jim Jordan failed in his first bid to win the gavel on Tuesday. The hard-right Ohio Republican trailed by 17 votes. The second vote was postponed until 11am on Wednesday, although even his biggest supporters see no clear path to victory. “I don’t know what to think,” Republican James Comer of Kentucky said after Tuesday’s vote.
A plan B (or is it C?) would involve Patrick McHenry, The North Carolina Republican, who was named interim speaker to succeed Kevin McCarthy of California, was ousted this month.
Temporary post comes with certain powers. But some Republicans — primarily Jordan’s opponents — want to empower McHenry to help conduct legislative business until a speaker is named. “We don’t want a government shutdown,” said Republican Carlos Gimenez of Florida. told reporters,
The clock is ticking. Unless an agreement is reached by November 17, federal agencies will shut down, with wide-ranging consequences. Key economic data, including the jobs report and consumer price index, will likely go unreleased.
Mergers and IPOs will remain in limbo because the SEC and Justice Department will have few or no staff members working to review them. Uncertainty is forcing companies in the IPO pipeline to struggle to file paperwork Completely rethink listing plans,
and emergency aid to Israel or Ukraine lives in danger,
Shutdown will not be necessary plunge the economy into recession, But this may affect development. Economists at Goldman Sachs have estimated that the government shutdown will reduce GDP by about 0.2 percentage points for each week. In an investor note hours after McCarthy was ousted, economists called the shutdown its “base case” scenario.
green shoots of china
China reported better-than-expected growth on Wednesday as stimulus measures introduced in recent months began to take effect. But analysts warned that the apparent greenlight may not be enough to overcome tough US sanctions, problems with the country’s troubled property sector and broader global economic uncertainty.
The economy has regained new momentum after a disappointing performance in the first half. third quarter Gross domestic product was up 1.3 percent compared to the previous three months. On a year-on-year basis, the economy grew by 4.9 per cent in 2022, much better than the days of severe Covid lockdowns.
Government support has helped. George Magnus, an associate at Oxford University’s China Center and former chief economist at UBS, told DealBook that Beijing has in recent months unveiled measures to boost manufacturing, public infrastructure building and consumer credit, and “the economy has now started responding”. ,
The markets remained largely stable. One reason: concerns about the property sector, whose growth rate has increased by a quarter over the past decade. country gardenOne of the country’s largest developers could default at any time after the deadline to pay the dollar-bond coupons passes.
Global headwinds are also great. The Biden administration on Tuesday announced tighter restrictions on US exports of high-end chips to China, making it harder for Beijing to make advances in technologies such as artificial intelligence. Detective Chief of Five Eyes intelligence-sharing alliance Urged Silicon Valley to protect its technology from Chinese espionage.
But China is focusing on new friends to compensate for the losses. Chinese leader Xi Jinping After holding talks with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin at the Belt and Road Initiative summit in Beijing on Wednesday, he praised relations with Russia. Xi said trade between the countries has reached record highs and their budding alliance is growing as tensions with the West show no signs of easing.
remote work stuck
Since May 2020, professors from Stanford University, the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México, and the University of Chicago have been conducting a monthly survey on remote work. Data has suggested that despite efforts by some CEOs to bring their employees back into the office, remote or hybrid work has become the new norm.
robloxThe gaming company has said employees will have to return at least part of the week or find jobs elsewhere.
DealBook drew three of the most interesting findings from its latest survey published this month:
It appears that remote workers don’t have two jobs. The research found that 62 percent of people had never been on two video calls at the same time, and the majority of people who had only double-booked once. This adds to further evidence that most remote workers don’t have extra hustle, despite having plenty of it Reporting To suggest otherwise.
Most fully remote workers say their pay doesn’t vary by location, Some companies like Facebook, Twitter and Microsoft has said remote workers will be paid less if they choose to live in less expensive areas. But the survey found that more than 50 percent of fully remote respondents, who rarely see their coworkers, said their pay has been adjusted.
Young companies are more likely to adopt remote and flexible work. Employees at companies established after 2017 reported working from home more often than older businesses. But that may change over time, according to Nicholas Bloom, a Stanford professor and one of the survey’s co-authors. “As these young companies grow and mature, they will turn into the medium and large companies of tomorrow, and will bring their remote-friendly practices with them,” Bloom recently wrote for The Times.
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